The global chip shortage may continue until the second quarter of 2022

Information technology research and consulting company Gartner predicts that the global semiconductor supply shortage will continue throughout 2021 and return to normal levels in the second quarter of 2022.

Kanishka Chauhan, the chief research analyst at Gartner, said: "Semiconductor supply shortages will severely disrupt the supply chain and will restrict the production of a variety of electronic devices in 2021. Chip foundries are increasing the prices of chips, and chip companies are also increasing the prices of equipment. "

The equipment that initially experienced the shortage of chip supply mainly included power management, display equipment, and microcontrollers. This equipment was manufactured on traditional nodes in 8-inch chip foundries, and their supply was limited. Now, the problem of supply shortage has extended to other equipment, and the supply chain links outside the chip foundry, such as substrates, bonding wires, passive components, materials, and testing, are all experiencing capacity constraints and supply shortages. These industries have been highly commoditized, so there is almost no flexibility/capacity for active investment in a short time.

The supply shortage of most types of equipment is expected to continue until the second quarter of 2022 (see Figure 1), while the substrate capacity limit may be extended to the fourth quarter of 2022.

Gartner analysts suggest that OEMs that directly or indirectly rely on semiconductors can take four key actions to mitigate risks and revenue losses during the global chip supply shortage.

Extend the visibility of the supply chain due to the shortage of chip supply, supply chain leaders need to extend the visibility of the supply chain from the supplier to the chip level, which is useful for predicting supply constraints and bottlenecks and ultimately predicting when this crisis situation will improve. Important.

Guarantee supply through a joint model and/or advance investment OEMs that require smaller and critical components must seek cooperation with similar entities and form a joint entity with chip foundries and/or packaging and testing foundries (OSAT), So as to gain some advantages. In addition, if the scale permits, investing in the commercialization link of the chip supply chain and/or chip foundry in advance can guarantee the company's long-term supply.

Tracking leading indicators-Although it is impossible to predict how the supply shortage situation will evolve based on any one of the relevant parameters, the combination of multiple relevant parameters can help guide the development of the enterprise in the right direction.

Gaurav Gupta, vice president of research at Gartner, said: "Because the current shortage of chips is constantly changing, we must continue to understand its changes." By tracking capital investment, inventory index, and the semiconductor industry revenue growth forecast as an early indicator of inventory Such leading indicators can help companies understand the latest progress of this issue and the development of the entire industry.

Establish a diversified supplier system—Although verifying the qualifications of different chip sources and/or packaging and testing foundries requires more effort and investment, it is of great help in reducing risks. In addition, establishing close strategic relationships with distributors, resellers, and traders will help companies find small quantities of emergency devices.